>gabes/the letter
shifttuesday2026-08-11

the companies building the ai are spending about four dollars for every one the market pays them back.

their capex problem is not your problem, unless you bought the same way they did.

ai infrastructure spend is running near $400 billion a year against roughly $100 billion in enterprise ai revenue, chip stocks slid into a bear market this summer, and fund managers just logged a record reading on overspend worry. the gap belongs to the hyperscalers, but the buying habit it normalized landed on you: seats, tiers, and capacity bought ahead of any workload that asked for them, on the theory that the capability would find a use later. it shows up in your p&l as licenses nobody activated and a committed tier you keep renewing because unwinding it now looks worse than paying for it. the move going around is to wait out the shakeout and buy cheaper in a year, which is the same unattached purchase with a later date on it.

do the version that holds: name the one workflow costing you the most hours this quarter, buy only what that workflow needs, and write the number it has to move before the renewal lands. a vendor who cannot price against a single workflow is asking you to fund their capacity, not your throughput.